It's not just the opposition: Compounding climate events spell trouble for Modi's development agenda
What has been the impact of climate change on India’s democratic and economic infrastructure?
Happy Thursday and welcome to the latest edition of India Link Weekly.
In the wake of the Indian election results, much has been made about the many factors that animated voter turnout and behavior across the country. But while analysts and commentators have been understandably caught up in the narratives around the ruling party’s electoral weaknesses in Ayodhya and across the Hindi Belt, one under-discussed angle, which forces us to consider some burning questions, has been the impact of climate change on India’s democratic and economic infrastructure.
This week, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads to Jammu and Kashmir to unveil multiple developmental projects and participate in the 10th International Day of Yoga event in Srinagar, speculation is rife that the country’s newest chapter of coalition politics could jeopardize Modi’s and the BJP’s economic agenda for India. While the personalities associated with the new “NDA 3.0” governing coalition present serious political challenges for Modi and the BJP, an unforgiving heatwave in Delhi, devastating rains in Chennai, and the stalling southwest monsoon illustrate that the climate crisis also has the potential to hobble the government’s attempt to turn India into the world’s third-largest economy by 2027.
On Tuesday, the Indian Capital Region recorded its hottest night in 55 years, with a temperature of 35.2 degrees Celsius (95.36 degrees Fahrenheit). This climatic episode is a continuation of the heatwave that has been ravaging northwest India since the start of the Indian elections in late April and early May. The uptick in heat-related fatalities experienced by Indians across the central and northwest regions of the country is inextricably linked to a tepid start to the Monsoon season. An illuminating new report from Down to Earth discusses how the Bay of Bengal branch of the southwest monsoon has stalled for 19 days, driving a rainfall deficit during the key rainy season that accounts for 70 percent of the country’s total annual rainfall.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department, the country received just 64.5 millimeters of rain in the first few weeks of June compared with the long-term average of 80.6 millimeters. With crops caught in the climate crosshairs, the Indian government will be sweating over a potential downturn in harvests which could complicate inflation metrics in rural areas where there is already palpable frustration over food prices and essential crops. Further still, global anxieties over lower crop yields in India will be supercharged, as any drop-off in sugar and rice exports could exacerbate existing inflation distress across the world.
Finally, in commentary this week we’ve included perspectives from C. Raja Mohan on the key geopolitical challenges facing Narendra Modi in his third term as India takes on the mantle of global leadership in the 21st Century, and a cerebral piece from Ruchi Gupta on the discourse of global inequality in India.
In Elections:
Hindustan Times: Three governance tasks that confront new government
The Lok Sabha elections verdict suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) governance model requires an upgrade. The new government faces three critical challenges — socioeconomic inequality, unemployment, and federal fault lines. How it addresses them will determine whether the BJP wins back its mojo or cedes ground to a resurgent Opposition.
Over the past four decades, rapid economic growth has lifted millions from poverty, and improved living conditions across the country. But as this column has pointed out earlier, the extent of improvement has varied sharply across regions and social groups (‘Inequality debate must centre around evidence’, May 20). The first step to address this issue is to collect credible and granular data on socioeconomic inequalities.
The Quint: Why Modi 3.0 Will Have Internal Rivalries, Caste Divides and Coalition Worries
The rise of the BJP as a mighty national party that has ruled India for more than a decade under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a humongous challenge for the RSS to retain both its idealism and its perceived influence over the party.
But it is more than certain that the BJP's old-world idealism based on selflessness is showing some stress as political ambitions surge in its ranks. As idealist activism gives way to the spoils of power, the new kind of talent an organisation attracts is driven more by a desire to be in prominence than be a humble karyakarta (the BJP's description of a dutiful worker) or sevak (servant) that the RSS wants.
As individual ambition and clout in regions and communities rise, it is difficult for the BJP to sustain its old-world idealism. As Modi placates or pleases coalition allies like the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Janata Dal (United), its new president (whoever it is), set to replace outgoing leader JP Nadda, may have to contend with restive party ranks.
The Washington Post: Will India’s powerful Modi change his ways after the election setback?
Last week, Modi unveiled a new government that signaled continuity, not change. He included newcomers from his coalition partners, but the key portfolios of defense, finance and foreign affairs were all retained by loyalists from his Bharatiya Janata Party. He did not include a Muslim, a minority he has long demonized, in a 71-member council of ministers that was otherwise diverse in geographic origin and caste.
He also retained Amit Shah, a close confidant and the BJP’s political strategist, to continue overseeing domestic agencies, including the investigative apparatus that opposition leaders and independent news outlets say has been wielded against them.
In Parliament, Modi will continue to exercise significant power, even though he will govern alongside two coalition partners, Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, the respective leaders of Andhra Pradesh and Bihar states. While both Naidu and Kumar clashed with Modi in the past — Kumar famously compared Modi to Hitler during a falling-out in 2013 — neither has the ambition to challenge Modi in national politics today.
Analysts say the Modi-led government would probably collapse only if Naidu and Kumar left simultaneously, and Modi could offer incentives, such as increased federal spending for poor northern Bihar or foreign supply chain contracts and investment for coastal Andhra, to keep them on.
The Financial Times: Narendra Modi’s government will ‘struggle’ to survive, says Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi
Congress was an easy target for the populist BJP because of its dynastic heritage and endemic corruption in its past governments. Modi attacked Gandhi as a privileged “shehzada”, or prince, and Indian media outlets, many of which are owned by Modi backers or rely on them for advertising, often portrayed him as a feckless and blundering figure.
However, analysts said the opposition MP took steps to rebuild his political brand with two yatras, or treks, across the country, first south to north by foot and then east to west by vehicle.
The images of Gandhi mingling with ordinary Indian citizens cut a contrast with Modi, who has cultivated a cult of personality unseen in Indian politics since Gandhi’s grandmother Indira and during the campaign claimed he was sent by God.
Hindustan Times: PM Modi's two-day visit to Jammu & Kashmir begins on June 20: Full schedule
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will commence his two-day trip to Jammu and Kashmir on June 20. During his visit to the Union territory, PM Modi will lay the foundation stone of multiple developmental projects and participate in the 10th International Day of Yoga event in Srinagar.
PM Modi's visit to Jammu and Kashmir will commence a day after security forces carried out a search operation and encounter in the Baramulla district on Wednesday, killing two terrorists. The operation currently remains underway.
BBC: India's Priyanka Gandhi to finally make electoral debut
Priyanka Gandhi, sister of India's main opposition Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, is set to contest her first election, ending decades of anticipation by her supporters.
Ms Gandhi is a descendant of the Nehru-Gandhi family, India's most famous political dynasty, and her electoral debut will be closely watched.
The 52-year-old will contest the Wayanad seat in the southern Indian state of Kerala after her brother relinquishes it.
A win for Ms Gandhi would mean the presence of all three Gandhi family members in the Indian parliament.
Her mother Sonia Gandhi, former president of the Congress party, is an MP in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the parliament.
In Diplomacy and Security…
The Diplomat: India and US Vow to Boost Defense, Trade Ties
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is on a two-day visit to the Indian capital, New Delhi, the first from a high-ranking U.S. official since Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third straight term in India’s general election earlier this month. Sullivan met with his counterpart, Ajit Doval, to discuss progress on the Initiative on Critical Emerging Technologies, which the two countries launched in 2022.
The initiative sets a path for collaboration on semiconductor production and developing artificial intelligence and was critical in sealing a deal that will allow U.S.-based General Electric to partner with India’s Hindustan Aeronautics to produce jet engines in India.
…ties have also been tested after U.S. prosecutors last year accused an Indian government official of orchestrating a plot to murder a Sikh separatist leader in New York.
The Secretariat: Foreign Policy Agenda For NDA 3.0: A More Inclusive Neighbourhood Policy Is The Need Of The Hour
As a new NDA 3.0 government settles in, it needs to address the twin strands of its foreign policy – of pursuing its goal to become a developed country while consolidating its position as a regional power.
To this end, it needs to focus on a neighbourhood-first policy, much like the one crafted by late US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, while balancing New Delhi’s relations with its Western allies and a growing Asiatic super-power in China.
That Prime Minister Narendra Modi wishes to continue his engagements with India’s neighbours was underlined when he invited heads of state from the seven South Asian nations to his swearing-in ceremony for a third term.
FirstPost: EAM Jaishankar to embark on official visit to Sri Lanka
Jaishankar’s visit marks India’s continued commitment to Sri Lanka, being its closest maritime neighbour.
“Reaffirming India’s Neighbourhood First Policy, the visit underlines India’s continued commitment to Sri Lanka as its closest maritime neighbour and time-tested friend. The visit will add momentum to connectivity projects and other mutually beneficial cooperation across sectors,” the External Affairs Ministry said.
Resuming his duties in the Ministry of External Affairs in South Block last week, Jaishankar, a well-known BJP leader who guided India’s diplomatic course during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second term, assumed responsibility as External Affairs Minister once again in the new government.
POLITICO: Biden’s awkward week with India draws scrutiny — and possible solutions
In November, U.S. prosecutors alleged that an Indian security official directed a plan to kill a Sikh separatist leader living in New York City. The suspect was extradited to the U.S. this week and pleaded not guilty on Monday. So far, the Biden administration has not taken steps to punish India, despite subsequent reports further implicating the Indian government in the scheme.
The inaction is likely because Washington has attempted to grow closer to India in the past few years, viewing New Delhi as a crucial counterbalance to China and Russia, experts say.
“Strategic imperatives loom large, given a strong shared interest in countering China, so the administration will proceed cautiously,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center. “I don’t anticipate any punishment or even consideration of punishment for now.”
In Business and Economy…
Rest of World: The design-obsessed Indian scooter company with global ambitions
Ather Energy, one of the first electric scooter startups in India, dedicated its first five years to research and design innovation to suit local needs.
The company has filed 212 patents in India and five others internationally.
After selling 226,000 EVs to date, Ather is now eyeing global expansion. It launched in Nepal last year, and plans to enter Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe.
The Wall Street Journal: India Beats China in Stock Performance
Not many stock markets can hold a candle to the red-hot Nasdaq. India is an exception.
Strong profit growth, geopolitical tailwinds and favorable demographics have presented a compelling investment case for the country. From the end of 2019 through Tuesday, the MSCI India Index surged 110%, ahead of the U.S. tech-heavy index’s 99% gain. Even more surprising, though, is how well India has fared compared with what is—for now, at least—the world’s largest emerging stock market: MSCI China is down by 30% over the same period.
The contrasting fortunes of the two Asian markets mirror their economic realities. China’s imploding housing market continues to be a drag on its economy while a regulatory crackdown has sunk the country’s once-highflying tech companies. Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, for example, has lost around three-quarters of its value since its peak in 2020.
CNN: Hyundai: India’s biggest IPO could come from South Korean car manufacturer
Hyundai Motor’s India unit sought regulatory approval on Saturday for a stock market listing in Mumbai, which could be the nation’s biggest and will see the South Korean parent sell a stake of up to 17.5% in the company.
The initial public offering (IPO) will make it the country’s first car maker to go public in two decades since Maruti Suzuki in 2003, and would come just as Indian stock markets are trading near record highs.
Hyundai counts India as a crucial growth market where it has two manufacturing units and has invested $5 billion, with commitments to pump in another $4 billion over the next decade. The world’s biggest car market after China and the United States is the company’s third-biggest revenue generator globally.
CNBC: India wants to be a developed nation by 2047. Here are 4 critical areas Modi can’t ignore
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has an ambitious goal for India to be a developed economy by 2047, but analysts believe this is only possible if the country’s infrastructure development, manufacturing capabilities, and employment rates improve.
A Modi-led coalition won’t likely derail India’s economic and development, but the new government will now have to restore faith in the people and ensure India’s standing in the Global South remains, analysts said.
Reuters: Poll: Job creation is India's top economic challenge, policy experts say
Tackling India's chronic joblessness will be the biggest challenge for the government over the next five years, even as the country remains the world's fastest-growing major economy, according to policy experts polled by Reuters.
Asia's third-largest economy grew more than 8% last fiscal year, driven by government capital expenditure that so far has failed to spark sufficient business spending to create enough work, particularly for young people in a country of 1.4 billion.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party lost the parliamentary majority it has held for the past decade in national elections that ended in early June over widening inequality, relentless inflation pressure - particularly on food - and a lack of well-paying jobs.
An overwhelming 91% majority of development economists and policy experts, 49 of 54, said unemployment would be the biggest economic challenge for the government's term in a survey taken May 15-June 18.
In Science & Tech:
TechCrunch: Meta AI removes block on election-related queries in India while Google still applying limits
With India’s election process completed and the new government starting its tenure in office, Meta has removed its restriction on election-related queries using its Meta AI chatbot. However, Google is still applying limits as part of its global restrictions on this type of queries.
Meta’s restrictions lift means you can search for queries related to India’s election results, information on politicians, and details about officeholders. TechCrunch was able to get answers about election results, political figures, and officeholders from Meta AI. Meta didn’t provide any statement on this.
The company first started blocking certain political queries when the election in India commenced in April. At the time, Meta AI was pointing people toward the Election Commission’s website when you asked it about politicians, candidates, officeholders, and information about political parties.
The Economist: India’s electronics industry is surging
Bangalore, home to many of India’s it giants, is better known for its software than its hardware. However, the new factories suggest that, in one industry at least, India’s efforts to transform itself into a manufacturing powerhouse are bearing fruit. Electronics manufacturing—the business of building mobile phones, televisions and other gadgets—is thriving in India. The value of electronics it produced rose from $37bn to $105bn (3% of gdp) between the fiscal years ending in March 2016 and March 2023 (see chart). The government wants to triple this again by fiscal 2026. Although India’s production of electronics accounts for just 3% of the global total, its share is growing faster than any other country’s.
Nowhere is this boom more evident than in the production of phones, which makes up nearly half of India’s electronics industry. The country is the world’s second-largest maker of the devices, trailing only China. In fiscal 2015 India imported almost four-fifths of its phones. It now imports barely any. Apple sources about one in seven of its iPhones from India, double what it did a year ago. Samsung, a South Korean rival, has its largest phone-making facility in the country.
In Climate & Infrastructure…
Bloomberg: India’s Dry Start to Monsoon Raises Concerns Over Crop Outlook
India’s crucial monsoon is off to a poor start, with rainfall 20% lower than normal across the country, raising concerns about the production outlook for key crops including sugar and rice.
The South Asian nation received 64.5 millimeters (2.5 inches) over the first 18 days of June, compared with the long-term average of 80.6 millimeters, according to the India Meteorological Department. Some regions including the biggest sugarcane-growing area got even less.
India’s monsoon runs from June to September and irrigates about half of the nation’s farmland, and lower harvests could lead to further or extended curbs on exports to keep a lid on domestic inflation. The country is a major shipper of rice and sugar and restrictions could flow to global prices.
Hindustan Times: Delhi’s hottest night in 55 years in a summer without respite
Tuesday night was Delhi’s hottest in at least 55 years, with a temperature of 35.2°C, data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed, as a scorching, unprecedented summer tightened its debilitating grip on the national capital, squeezing its water supply and sending hundreds of people to hospital with heat-induced illness.
Down to Earth: Stalled southwest monsoon: ‘break periods’ are normal every season; but this time, there is a difference
The Bay of Bengal branch of the southwest monsoon has been stalled since May 31, a day after the onset of the monsoon simultaneously over Kerala and Northeast India. That is a stalling period of 19 days as of June 19, one of the longest in recent time, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The stalled monsoon has led to an all India deficit in monsoon rainfall of 20 per cent between June 1 and June 18, heralding a sluggish start to the season responsible for 70 per cent of the country’s total rainfall.
It is also one of the reasons for the late heatwaves in most of north India and many parts of west, central and eastern India since the beginning of June. In many places like Delhi, temperatures are also not reducing at night. This is leading to warm night conditions and no respite for people even at night.
On June 18, Delhi recorded a night time temperature of 35.2°C, its highest June temperature since 1969, according to media reports. This was a staggering 8°C above the normal. Delhi also suffered from a huge rainfall deficit of 94 per cent between June 1 and June 18.
In Culture & Society…
BBC: Will India's Booker Prize-winning author face jail for 14-year-old remark?
Last week, 14 years after the original complaint, Delhi's most senior official granted permission for the Booker Prize-winning author Arundhati Roy to be prosecuted under India’s stringent anti-terror laws. The Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) is notorious for making it exceptionally challenging to get bail, often resulting in years of detention until the completion of trial.
The Modi government has been accused of using the law to silence critics, including activists, journalists and civil society members.
Ms Roy, 62, an outspoken writer and activist, is in the dock for comments on Kashmir, a perennial lightning rod in India.
In Commentary and Opinion…
Scroll: Why the sanction to prosecute Arundhati Roy under UAPA is legally suspect
The grant of sanction by Delhi Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena on Friday to prosecute author Arundhati Roy and academic Sheikh Showkat Hussain under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act is surprising for two reasons.
First, its timing: the alleged offence for which Roy and Hussain are to be prosecuted took place nearly 14 years ago, on October 21, 2010, with a first information report registered by the Delhi police a week later.
Second, the lack of transparency regarding the reasons for prosecution. A 2013 judgement of the Supreme Court held that under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, an order sanctioning prosecution should ideally reflect the reasoning employed for the grant of sanction.
Indian Express: C Raja Mohan writes: Rising power, rising responsibilities — five geopolitical challenges before Modi 3.0
As the NDA government settles down to govern in the third term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, five new themes will shape its engagement with the world. Delhi now faces an international context that is quite different from 2014 or 2019. Deep structural changes are unfolding in the international system that demand major adjustments in India’s worldview and adaptations to its domestic policies. The five imperatives outlined below are by no means the only challenges that will confront the new government, but they are among the main geopolitical imperatives.
The first is the return of great-power rivalry that demands an approach driven by interest rather than ideology. The renewed conflict between the West on the one hand and China and Russia on the other has begun to produce a very different set of external conditions for the conduct of India’s international relations than the one it had to deal with in 1991. At the end of the Cold War marked by the collapse of the Soviet Union, Delhi had the room to engage with all the great powers without looking over its shoulder.
India: Politics, Power & Public Discourse (Ruchi Gupta Substack): Why Inequality May be the Cause of American Gloom About Their Economy - and Implications for India
However, there's a deeper political problem. Inequality creates an aspiration-reality mismatch. People do not want to run to stay where they are. Even though wages may have increased, most people are still not moving forward in life - they are simply keeping up with higher prices. Higher wages have not translated into upward mobility. Not only that - the most common indicator of upward mobility - home ownership - is becoming more and more expensive. So even though people’s personal finances may be comfortable to match their previous standard of living, the inability to move forward may be creating a sense of falling behind - and leading to a sense of gloom about the economy.
This has implications for India too. Our popular culture is suffused with the valorisation of the lifestyles of the rich and famous which has cultivated a deep sense of aspiration among the masses. However, our country is not geared to address the desire for upward mobility for the masses. The most obvious path to upward mobility - higher education - is riddled with corruption, poor quality and uncertain job prospects.
Miscellanea and Other Useful Reading..
Grand Tamasha (podcast): India's 2024 Election—and its Aftermath
Sadanand Dhume and Tanvi Madan join Milan Vaishnav to discuss the outcomes and aftermath of India’s 2024 election.
That's all for this week.
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